Take the Right Path by following the Signs: Lipkin’s Seven Omens that will shape your success in 2009

Toronto, March 1 2009, 11.00pm

The Ides of March are almost upon us. January and February 2009 are already history. How did the heck did that happen? A week is the new day. They just flash by. And that’s great news. It means that the gathering of the bears will soon morph into the running of the bulls. The global meltdown is already re-forming itself. Nothing lasts forever. This too shall pass. It already is. Every day, I see signs of hope and change. Can you see them? Because I know it’s not just me. I’m a radical optimist but I’m not Pollyanna. I see the Omens and they’re getting bigger, brighter, sharper and louder.

Last Monday, I had the great pleasure of presenting my thoughts to the Canadian sales force of Intercontinental Hotels Group, the holding company for Holiday Inn, Crowne Plaza, Intercontinental Hotels and others. Angela Xavier, the Director of Sales for Canada, asked me to share my view of the trends transforming Canada in 2009 with her team. So I prepared the presentation I’ll share with you in this blog. That’s the way my life works: someone asks me to create a message and I get to share it with the entire planet. How cool is that? Very cool. But I have a request of you: as you read my Omens, give me back some of your own. The more you think, write, talk and share, the more you create the future with everyone else. And that’s the best way to predict the future: influence it with your voice, insights and energy.

Here’s Lipkin’s First Omen: Prices for everything are going down, including the price for your service. Deflation is already here. It’s a buyer’s market. House prices are heading south.  Cars are selling at massive discounts. I’m charging less for my services. Five-star hotels are charging less for theirs. Harry Rosen is selling their fancy suits for 30-50% off. Professionals on the hunt for jobs are settling for lower salaries. Bonuses are being eliminated. Travel costs are plummeting. There’s downward pressure on fees and prices everywhere. How are you handling it? How are you maintaining your revenue against intense downward pressure. How are you managing your overheads? How are you ensuring your cash-flow? No matter how much things improve in the next twelve months, prices and fees will lag. In our personal and professional lives, we’re being trained to expect and get lower prices. So run lean. Run hard. Be special. Be memorable. Create value that people can only get from you. Creating a micro-personal-monopoly is the only antidote to the pricing downdraft. That’s why I’m writing this blog. It’s part of my UVP – unique value proposition. Lipkin’s unique insights can only come from one person – Lipkin.

Here’s Lipkin’s Second Omen: The Volatility Index will increase exponentially. Shock-ing is the new normal. The last thing you expect is the first thing that will happen and it will keep on happening. Some of the shocks are traumatic. And some of the shocks are nirvanic. How about the Dow at 7000, exactly 50% down, versus a year ago? How about a Black man in the White House? How about Canadians preferring the American leader to their own? How about the next breakthrough in communication, medicine or diplomacy? How about me being able to produce the video of this blog on my Apple, upload it to YouTube and instantly be able to talk to anyone, anywhere, anytime? How about 50% of my market disappearing overnight as conferences and meeting are cancelled because of the crisis? How about the call I know I will receive tomorrow that could change everything all over again? How about my friend, Ken Allen, being appointed to Global CEO of DHL Worldwide? In ways both personal and universal, the surprises will come at you with accelerating velocity. Don’t be surprised by surprise. And give others the kind of surprises they want to help them handle the kind of surprises they don`t.

Here’s Lipkin’s Third Omen: 1-2-1 connections will help you rule your world. Social networking begins with one person talking to one person. Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and the like, are faux substitutes for the real thing. Online “friends“ who come and go at the click of a button are not real friends. Real  friends know you, love you, buy from you, and promote you to other real friends who can do the same. The winners will be those who develop deep, enduring, mutually valuable relationships with people who matter. These precious few are known as KOLs  – Key Opinion Leaders. They are the people who either make the decisions, or influence others to make the decisions. They need to be nurtured over time. They are discerning, appreciative, loyal, strategic and connected. They require intense one-to-one conversation. Their love is entirely conditional: you have to keep bringing them the kind of value that makes them valuable to their friends.  If you even have a handful of these people in your immediate network, you will thrive. And just one more can make a monumental difference. I know. I depend on these people for a living. You know who you are. Thank you.

Here`s Lipkin`s Fourth Omen: In the face of bewildering complexity, people crave meaningful simplicity. The world`s current economic woes can be sourced to one core phenomenon: Too many people trusted too many people to invest too much money in too many things they didn’t even want to understand. It was much worse than the blind leading the blind. It was those who thought they could see, leading those who thought others could see for them. Sprinkle some greed and arrogance into the mix and you have a lethal cocktail – delicious at first, damn-near fatal later. There`s a massive swing back to the fundamentals. There`s a migration to the “brilliant basics“ where the dots can be seen, explained and connected. But even that`s not enough. The dots need to motivate people to want to connect them. With so much noise and clutter clouding their future, people are searching for meaning – the kind of meaning that makes sense of things which don’t make sense. That requires stories that resonate on a heart and soul level. That`s why I`m writing these words. This is how I`m navigating my way through the future. These are the things I`m finding out every day. It`s about stripping away the inessentials to uncover the essence of the things that matter. We`re all explorers in this weird new world. And we need people who can tell us the stories that will compel us to keep going against all odds. Become one of them.

Here`s Lipkin`s Fifth Omen: We’re heading even deeper into the Age of Transparency – get used to being naked in front of others. Big Brother is watching. So is little sister. So is your neighbour. So is the person you don’t even know knows you. The video camera is tracking you. The webcam is watching you. Your personal data is being accessed by people you don’t want to access it. You`re being evaluated by everyone all the time and their opinion is being broadcast to the world. Privacy is almost obsolete – and even if it`s not, it pays to act like it is. Integrity is not just keeping your word or being honest. It`s living the kind of life that expresses the authentic you from every angle. Elaborately constructed public  images are collapsing as private personas are being uncovered. Consistency in the face of human fallibility is the holy grail. People will forgive you for the breakdown – especially in the US and Canada. We`re the continent of new beginnings. What people won`t forgive you for is lying, deceit or cover-up especially where their trust or interests are involved. Anyone who wants to sell to others, lead others, influence others, be connected to others is a public figure. So go public. Be an open book. Hide in plain sight. And remember one crucial truth: you are not the centre of other people`s universe. If you knew how little time they spend thinking about you, you wouldn`t worry what they think about you.

Here’s Lipkin’s Sixth Omen: Government is getting bigger so play by its rules. It turns out that Adam Smith was wrong. As people pursue their own self-interests, they don’t automatically lift others up. Unbridled, unregulated personal ambitions can destroy the planet. Some adults are just larger, more dangerous kids. That’s why we need other adults to monitor them – closely. The public and the private sector will get closer in the months ahead. The rules will proliferate. Compliance will become an even greater challenge. But Government will also change as it draws more people to it from the private sector. It will be become more consultative. It will become more responsive. But government will always be government. Its mission is to create the rules. And your mission is to know them and play by them. So get closer to government at the municipal, provincial and federal level. It’s already almost 40 percent of the economy and it will become even more. Connect. Comply. Communicate. Contribute.

Here’s Lipkin’s Seventh Omen: Crushing problems are crushing your competition – if you want to win, then WOW. I see the 80:20 principle everywhere. 80 percent of people are being diminished by the crises. They’re being tortured by their own anxiety. They’re focusing on what has gone wrong, what is going wrong, what could go wrong. They’re trapped in the negative feedback loop. Listen to the typical water-cooler conversation and you will hear the language of worry, sorry and woe. Misery loves company and many people are flocking to join. The irony is that there has never been a better time to shine. While most people are hunkering down, looking down, and feeling down, the vital few are stepping up their game. These are the 20 percent who understand that it doesn’t take extra time, energy or money to be excited. They understand that success is an inside job. They’re stepping into the gaps being created by their depressed, underactive competitors. They’re experimenting with a repertoire of new tools to WOW their customers. They’re not pursuing “customer satisfaction”. For them, that’s a given. They’re Living Above The Line. Their standard is a higher standard. It’s becoming the benchmark by which all others are judged. In ways big and small, they’re taking more and more “mindshare” from their paralyzed competitors. So choose: be excited by the future and transfer that excitement to others. Or be scared of the future and transfer that fear to others. See which approach works better for you.

Listen to this blog on my new audio podcast and watch it on YouTube – see

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7YKQ0UVVIs

Together, let’s make 2009 a blockbuster year, whatever the circumstances…